The term Greater Middle East emerged through the political literatures of Washingtonians since 2004 which include the Arab World, MENA, East Africa, some parts of Central Asia, and even Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey, and Iran. The larger scope of Middle east as discussed comprises strongest military powers and colossus economies such as Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel to the lowest living standards including Syria, Yemen, and even Afghanistan, Sudan, and South Sudan.
Middle East alone stretches through 18 countries with 7.2 mil km roomy soil, 370 million people and more than 60 spoken languages since centuries.
Additionally, 13 out of 18 countries of Middle East are part of the Arab World, located in Western Asia and North Africa. According to the recent statistics, more than 450 million inhabitants with 2.85 trillion GDP nominal are stationed through 13.1 mil Km long geography.
For relatively collective order, in 1981, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates formed Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) encompassing 50 million well-off people of the time with 2.6 mil Km roomy area with least tangible results throughout the history.
Likewise, on March 22, 1945, six Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria) formed the Arab League/Union aimed unity and order. The league is membered now by 22 countries to manage mutual trade, take common position on crippling terrorism, regional stability, but unfortunately, the league could not find unified solution to the common problems threatening collective livelihood as the GCC could not deliver.
The Middle East or Greater Middle East poses various scenario to the world. Some countries in the region ascend speedily to their heights and entertain utmost development while other countries decline precipitously threatening global orders. The imbalanced and unidentical status quo among the regional countries amid confusing puzzle into the entire structures.
Having utterly complex nature of livelihood, politics and security parameters; the middle eastern region comparatively, to the rest of the developing countries in the world, consumes vast number of US, Russians, Chinese and other super powers’ blood, policy attention, and treasures urging trade including oil and gas, political alliances and responsive security which presumably threatens western democracy and global orders at large, as stated by western powers. Meanwhile, the super-powers’ contentions for the ultimate hegemony in the region further deteriorated the situation.
For instance, US, UK, France, Germany, and few other countries are dipping their footprint deeper in the region to secure better and bigger pie in the cake, while Russia and China are cementing closer partnership to ward-off western influence due to mitigate future risks hedging their strategic influences.
For instance, Russia is heavily invested to promote strategic interests of Russian business in the region, guard against the rise of Islamic extremism and proliferation of nuclear weapons which can threatens the presence and influence of Russians in the room. Also, Russian leadership is concerned of its 12% Muslims population, lacking systemized approach and unified definition for interaction with the rest of Muslim countries. Russia executes asymmetric methods such as selling Billions of Dollars weapons to the middle eastern mostly Muslim countries, and meanwhile inking high tech cooperation, counter-terrorism, mutual trade and space invention strategic partnership with Israel.
On one hand, Russians have sold 900 km Iskander missiles and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, and on the other hand, have sent surface to air missiles system to UAE and helped Iran’s Bushehr Atomic Plant since 1996 ignoring western criticisms.
Even though, Russia is not part of OPEC but membered with OPEC plus since years to maneuver preponderance over the oil and gas markets throughout the greater middle east, and meanwhile sell its own oil and gas through Gazprom globally through better prices to the targeted markets. Russian Leadership is juggling many balls and wearing many hats at the same time. Russians multifaceted approaches signifies its deeper interest and unconditional inclination toward greater middle east to stay strong, and tall uncontested among other players. Russia is one example. The rest of the superpowers are heavily invested in the region for their respective strategic goals and missions.
Middle East is not an easy piece of turf. The complex nature of this region posed barrage number of opportunities and at the same time, tremendous challenges globally range from systemized insurgencies, to the oil and gas and Geo-strategic complexities. For example:
- Oil and Gas Phenomena:
Arab World had had 46 percent of proven oil reserves and a quarter of the global natural gas. Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are among the top ten countries in the world that contain immense oil and gas reservoirs. Among other factors, throughout the history; this cash-bonanza created complex nature of interactions internally and with the superpowers around the world.
Oil had been the growing phenomena since 1930s. for instance, among other issues; Saudi King Malik bin Abdul Aziz and US President Franklin D. Roosevelt during their 1945’s meeting discussed bilateral relations, including comprehensive dialogue over the essence and management of oil and gas extractions and trade. onward the meeting, the US and UK, and some other European countries in general, tightened the grip to exert hegemonic influence over the middle eastern geo-strategic and geo-economic atmosphere, which of course, brought various complications to the table.
Not only specific middle eastern countries, but other countries in the vicinity such as Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, and Egypt also came under the arc and radar of international control strategy since almost the last century.
In addition to that, when Britain was stationed in India, Suez Canal being close to the Indian ocean and a go-through line to the Arab world and African continent was under intense focus to ensure deep surveillance and timely maneuver over the targeted countries to act according to pre-designed strategies in accordance to the oil and gas sector. Such political struggle brought the region, since then, into the midst of vicious infighting and international political jigsaws.
- Amorphous Jihadist Ideologies:
In addition to the oil and gas complications, the emergence of exponential increase of hardcore Jihadist ideologies opened new school of thoughts in the region.
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has been active in the region since 1928, Lebanon’s Hezbollah since 1982, and importantly, the so-called motto of Islamic nationalism alarmed the global community concerning their security interests, whatsoever.
Relatively, ISIS had been operating between the swathe of Iraq and Syria, the Sinai Peninsula, eastern Libya and some areas of North Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and middle east.
ISIS, as the umbrella group entertain indirect Islamic sympathies from Wahabism, Jamiat Islamic from South Asia, JUD from Pakistan, some members from Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic front for Liberation of Bahrain, Nusra Front from Syria, Khurasan Group of Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and Europe, African Boko Haram from Nigeria, Ansar ul Sharia from Libya and few others from around the world. This juncture and possible future alliances bring immense opacity to the future of middle eastern region.
- The Divergence of incompatible Social Etiquettes and Traditions:
The essence of barrage numbers of spoken languages, dichotomy of ethnic traditions, social norms, histories, regional rivalries, and numerous religious practices further complicated the social order and political status quo in and around the middle east.
The Arab World stretches from Morocco to the Arabian Sea and Iran and entail Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya which is nothing but hell-on-wheel on uncharted-water in many cases.
For instance, Kurds somehow reside from the Mediterranean Ocean to the Persian Gulf (Near East), to the Southeast Sea (Middle East) and the Pacific Ocean symbolize starkest polarities and dissents to the ruling states of various government. Exemplarily, Kurds view them as a unique and independent combination of talent, history and other communal traits while the ruling states in different countries such as Iraq assume them part of the social fabric to live under the law as normal citizens without special privileges. The disparity and divergence between the two opposite views provoked by outsiders created a mess and considered as one of existential threats toward the future collective regional stability.
During the US- Iraq war of 2003-2011; a number of strategic blunders took place that simmered the tension even further. US military officer, Gen. Petrous and other senior-most officials had confessed record straight statement toward Iraq and its failures. Among them was putting Shia against Sunni igniting factional war and then abruptly decamping and leaving Iraq which created vicious infighting with collateral damages.
Putting Shia against Sunni, rich against poor, western educated vs Madrasa educated, and youths vs old generation was among the plain reasons of Iraq to rage non-stop with lasting effects on the region.
Economic Imbalances and Unjust Distribution of Wealth and Powers:
We have known the fact that when ethnic division run deep, political dispute can quickly descend into chaos. The history was repeated in Iraq and elsewhere since then.
Communal fractures and division emerge from dictatorship and exclusion of public from national polity. Riffing off national wealth, treasures, and amenities by one group or one cast create a sense of marginalization and lack of ownership, and that is how the anarchy and instability emerges.
Likely, large number of the Greater Middle Eastern countries within their respective geographies and regionally have been going through precarious political mismanagement, unjust power distribution, polyarchies which created collective chaos and anarchies.
Conversely, Saudi Arabia with nominal GDP of 1.060 trillion, Turkey with 1.030 trillion, and Israel with 530 billion are the strongest countries in the wider scope.
Likely, average Qatari annually earn around 83000 USD, Israel 55000, and UAE citizens 50000 USD while Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Algeria and many other nations are teetering at the verge of hunger catastrophes and deep economic meltdowns.
Unemployment crisis is on its peak. Middle East is relatively a high-density youth land. Age 15-30 represent 30% of the region’s population and the joblessness rate is between 25 to even 40%, namely 37% in Morocco and 70% in Syria.
Humans are considered power but meanwhile threats if not properly managed. Humans needs amenities including cloths, shelter, food, and most importantly modern, healthy, and constructive educations. Weak law enforcement, services delivery and required surveillances over the nations create strategic vacuum, and therefore young generation automatically turn lawless, distracted and war mongers.
Statistically, from 1990 to 2008, the Arab world witnessed 108 million newborns, a 44 percent increase of their collective population. Comparatively, during the same period of time, 92 million (17%) in China, and 26 Millions babies in Europe which comprise 5% of its total populations. The abrupt increase in the rate of newborns in the short period of time with dysfunctional government system to manage, feed, educate, accommodate and employ is an auto-programmed time bomb with iffy watch. The repercussion of various other factors, including joblessness have been played as catalysts to escalate tensions all around later on.
Alongside mis-management of public force and man power; terrorism, insurgencies, hate crimes, civil wars, and social convulsion are the direct consequences of ruptured economies, poverty, joblessness and government failures to serve justice and inclusion by governments which are obvious now all over the region in plain sight.
In addition to that, the greater middle eastern region in general has been going through high degree of inequality, low growth, rising poverty, and unemployment which play as the breeding ground for larger regional disarray that can threaten all and everyone.
Wrong-headed Strategies of Regional and International Players and Failed Political System:
This region has always been an interest area for all and has never been a place away from contrived political games. The head-on of global superpowers in middle east always amid bloodshed and internecine with deep collateral damages. The middle eastern skirmishes provoked by exogenous factors often designed under a white flag and symbolism of religions, ethnical supremacy, so-called independence, and political powers inter and intra-regional countries.
Among the very reasons, the post-World War II consequence over this region was far-reaching as well. In 1948, the State of Israel was formed and backed by the US, Britishers and other European powers not to merely support Jews but to instill their own long-term objectives in the regional affairs. Israel, as the newborn state with historic presence in the region, as claimed by Jews, could have entertained friendly and cooperative relation with surrounding countries, but instead, stirred up by western countries, Israel often collided with other countries.
Namely, the 1948 Arab-Israel war, the 1956’s Suez Canal crisis and the 1967 Arab-Israel 6 Days’ war, 1973 Yam Kippur war, which ultimately swapped by 1979 peace accord between certain Arab countries and Israel but the deep wounds were not closed fully, except peace makeshifts. Since the last almost 44 years, there has not been a decade without occasional fights and continued cold wars with Israel and Arab Countries amongst.
Unfurling the historic events, one reach to a conclusion that Middle east was purposely plunged into a mess through mobilizing insurrection, political interruptions, and invasions. The intra-nations infighting, and inter-regional wars is symbolized as the catalyst for the pervasive disorders engineered by outsiders to the region for decades.
For instances, the destructions of 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war, and the 15 years’ long Lebanese civil war of 1975-1990 who killed 120000 people and injured and migrated/displaced two million people were internally mobilized but externally provoked.
Although, the Moroccan ‘s 16-year civil war (1975-1991) was not as disastrous as the Lebanese in term of casualties, but the multifarious sickening effects as the aftermath of the conflict is still visible, not only on the country but also on the region at large.
Likely, the 1991’s Gulf war, where a mix army of 42 countries attacked Iraq was mutually destructive. As a result, Kuwait was freed from the clutch of Iraq, Saudi Arabia was shielded, Iraq was defeated, the world left back and US remained in Saudi with 5000 boots on ground hedging immense influence over the regional affairs.
After the Gulf War, many incidents in the Arab world, South and Central Asia, America and Europe shaped with deep origin and motivation from the Gulf war.
Osama bin Laden niggled the presence of US in Saudi, fled to Sudan, engineered attacks on Khobar towers, Yemen’s Aden port, attacks on US embassies in Kenya, Tanzania and the incident of 9/11 which were instigated one way or another by the Gulf War and other regional incidents with external links.
US and NATO resurged Iraq again in March 2003. Reshuffled politics and declared de-Baathification. US Ambassador General Bremer dissolved Iraqi army on his third day and Baath Party on the fifth day.
Ultimately, the US-Iraq war killed around 174000 people which make 112000-123000 civilians or may be more. The Iraqi people stranded and developed hate toward US and NATO, mobilized for retaliation and formed various groups under various names to comeback to revenge and avoid next incursions. The formation was politically or religiously motivated, but a large number of the Iraqi Army military and intelligence officers, having no alternatives for survival after rusticated from army, joined the insurgent group and staged threats beyond the boundaries. Having that in mind, the future shall look gloomed and doomed and full of caveats for major security incidents in the region and in the world.
The emergence of ISIS in post-US middle east is contingent over many factors, but the US failure to discern between friends and foes, exercise of bad governance, failure to understand and manage ethnic and religious patterns including the role management of Muqtada Al Sadr, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis and Qais Khazali, doomy leadership of Noori Al Maliki in national polity and Sunni-Shia relation, and finally the abrupt US troops pull-out mandate in Dec, 2011 riddled by colossal political, diplomatic and security challenges are among the key reasons which caused the emergence of Arab spring, ISIS and many other groups.
Following the emerged chaos, ironically, in 2011, US folded his tents and left where the entire Arab world in general and Syria, Iraq and Yemen in specific, started to pummel under the waves of Arab spring including ISIS.
President Putin was reported to blame 40 countries directly or indirectly supporting ISIS, opposed by NATO who claimed that around 60 countries globally, including Europeans, fight against ISIS. Abdel Bari Atwan, the author of Book (DAESH) wrote that ISIS fighters consist diehard fighters from around 100 countries which severely complicate the structure and the fight against ISIS to disrupt, paralyze and defeat them. Let’s not forget that ISIS is grown in middle east, stationed there and enjoy free movements between various swathes of this very region left behind as piece as ugly clog by US, NATO and regional players.
In addition to that, Syria was going through three-pronged infighting model. President Asad’s military, Free Syrian Army, and ISIS fighters were fighting amongst, against each and every one against everyone. Iran, Russia, and some other countries were supporting Assad’s regime while NATO, and US was clandestinely supporting Free Syrian Army. Syria was not only complicated because of the internal skirmish but because of the nature of regional contentions and proxy slugfests in the Syrian land.
To iron-out the Syrian conundrum, Italian origin, UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura had rendered his role (2014-2019) but failed to bring permanent solution and sustainable peace to Syria. He could not graft the views and positions of Iran, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Britain, Qatar, France, US, and other countries into a united front toward Syria. The post-bellum of the war was not properly managed and after the aftershock has been, and might be, even worse if something escalates again in the future which will suffer the entire middle eastern region and the relevant parts of the world in general.
The Syrian and Yemen’s tangram, the Iranian-Saudi hegemonic strife, the US-NATO-Russian-China economic proxy, the Israel-Palestinians’ endless stalemate, monumental unemployment, government-public fracture, and unequivocal states’ failure to deliver demand-based services to their people are the bottom-line of instability in the greater middle east with rife effects on the global affairs.
the middle eastern complex nature of political and security stretched now for a very long time. The challenges are getting bigger and are taking new shapes every day. The fight rages amongst and between the states of middle east. The scenarios need to be rethought and re-addressed. Nothing is for free. The politicians of the middle east and Arab world at large must pay a personal price for achieving a bigger goal of national and regional order and solace. The greater middle eastern challenges will not auto-disappear unless collective honest long-term strategies are well executed
For instance, rehashing and genuine demarche by governments on poverty, joblessness, fair distribution of national treasury, wealth and power between statemen and public is one desirable policy options.
Disconnection from global community, lack of modern education under democratic establishments, hunger, low-scored so-called theocratic leadership, and the dispensation of power between strongmen and their cronies have largely fed insurgency, undermined morale, and catalyzed the atmosphere of intimidation.
The factors are immense and can easily escalate the situations. The political elites have limited options. Either refraining themselves from illegal use of power and charting public as part of the political fabric and national polity or prepare for the precipitous slide of deeper states collapse.
The people of the world are suffering immense injustice and hunger. United Nation reportedly said that only two million people were undergoing hunger in 2002, the number rose to 125 million in 2015, and 830 million in 2023. Majority of these poverty struck people are part of the Greater Middle East.
World Bank, IRTI and IDB collectively reported that global Muslims pay around 600 billion USD annually as Zakat. Absolute majority of the Zakat payers are from the Arab World. What if 10-20% of the annual Zakat of the so called and publicity-oriented Zakat payers would have spent directly to the families of the hungry people in Arab world, North and East African countries? Will not the ratio of violence, dollar-a day so-called Jihad, political instability and social dissidence noticeably decreased? Will not the surrounding countries to the region and international community at large take the sigh of relieve and live in a safer, reliable and mutually beneficial atmosphere? Of course, they will, which is not happening now.
Lastly, the undercurrent and existence of the greater middle east is both an asset and liability for all. A stronger, disciplined and responsive Greater Middle East can play trailblazer and catalyst for the regional connectivity, and meanwhile, a disordered, conflict-torn, and recalcitrant greater middle east can cause a pervasive disarray which can plunge majority of the near and far countries into the hellhole of the future global community. Not only the statemen of the greater middle east, but also the global superpowers must committedly address the region and make it a better place for all.
About Writer: Mr. Intizar Khadim is an international political analyst and author of many books who navigate the complex landscape of political ideologies and power dynamics, offering insights that challenge conventional narratives and provoke critical thought. His research work focuses on webs of politics, historical governance patterns, dissecting policies and paradigms with a keen eye for fact-based details and a fearless pursuit of truth. Mr. Khadim has been university lecturer and key note speaker in international forums with extensive working experiences of government entities and multi-national entities in UAE, South Asian and East African Regions.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect Wesal TV’s editorial policy.
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